So, after my last post we got a new brilliant idea today from Fred Teeven, State Secretary for Public Safety and Justice.
Mr Teeven had the brilliant idea to make downloading illegal (something which is still legal in The Netherlands) so providers can block sites who serve illegal downloads.
Now I’m not going to rant about deep packet inspection or black/whitelists and how these things would seriously harm privacy. I’m not going to rant about the music industry’s ridiculous pricing schemes.
This post is all about the effects a regulation like that would have on the general public.

I remember when I got my first tape deck and waited for the Mega Top 50 to be aired on the radio on Saturdays. Printed charts in one had and one finger on the record button. Patiently I waited till the guy on the radio announced the songs I wanted to record so I could play them on my Walkman on Monday when I had to go to school again.
When I got older CD’s came around and with the allowance I got every week I could buy an album once every month or so. If I remember correctly a double CD went for about 40 guilders back then. Of course I didn’t get a discman until a few years later so all I was left with was copying it to a tape again.
When I got into college a whole new world opened up. A classmate sold any CD I’d want for 10 guilders and a teacher sold Twilight CD’s. For anyone who’s thinking about sparkling vampires, Twilight was a monthly release packed with the latest games and software. I can’t remember how much they went for but they were cheaper than buying 1 game.
In my second year in college we got our first computer with a modem. A whole new world opened up, every song I’d ever wanted was just 20 minutes away, the time it took for my 56k modem to download 1 song. But because it took so long and my parents still had to pay for every minute online I still bought the odd CD from the guy at school.

Now why am I telling you all this? Well, selling those music or Twilight CD’s was something basically everyone could do. To download all you needed was a phone line and parents willing to pay the bills. Getting a drive that could burn discs was a one time investment.
But after that copying was effortless. And while I can only guess at the amount of money those people made back then I’m sure it was quite profitable if a 40 y/o teacher takes the time to do it.

Back to present day.
I currently have a 120mbit connection and downloading a bluray takes about 45 minutes depending on the time of the day. So basically I can download HD content faster than I can watch it. There’s no need for me anymore to buy discs from a guy at school. I can get it faster and for free online. And it’s easy.
You don’t have to be a computer genius to work some p2p magic. Everyone can do it.

Now lets assume Mr Teeven’s idea gets accepted and laws are put in place to monitor traffic and block sites like the piratebay. p2p traffic is filtered and blocked if needed.
Who will this affect? People who enter URLs in Google just to click the first link to go to the page they want and everyone else who doesn’t really understand the internet.
These are the people who won’t be able to download anything anymore. Even if Mr Teeven says that the law isn’t to allow record companies to sue the average user. In theory they’d be able to. And we all know censorship is a slippery road.
However, it will also affect the people who do understand the internet. While the vast majority of them will just download for their own convenience there will be people again like the guys at my school. Downloading, burning and selling. And if you’re not aiming to make tens of thousands a year the chances of getting caught are slim at best.

It’s not unlikely to see things like Twilight start up again. Compilations of this months games, software, music and movies. All neatly packed on a few DVDs for only 15 euro’s. Which is about 13-14 euro’s profit.
It will be profitable again and I’m sure there are people waiting eagerly to start burning those discs again.
And maybe we’ll even see software that encrypts all the traffic. Bittorrent can do this already. All it’s lacking is a decentralized point to get your torrents.

In the end the harder they make it to more they criminalize it. If people don’t want to pay a certain price for something and there’s an alternative (the kid next door with a VPN) they’ll get it there.
The solution to the problem is simple, innovate. Spotify is doing a great job and I’ve been a paying customer for a few months now. It combines a huge library with a clean and fast interface. Responsiveness is amazing for a streaming service and it’s only 5 euro’s a month.
Now all I’m missing is a legal way to get those songs on my iPod or a truly unlimited bandwidth plan for my phone.

Either way, politicians shouldn’t worry about things they don’t understand or lazy record labels wanting to make fortunes off of CD’s with 2 good songs and 13 filler songs.
Don’t start censoring or criminalizing people. Sharing music / video is here to stay. Either online or on discs from a shady guy in an alley wearing a raincoat.